Sunday, May 14, 2006

 

Hirsch Report Response

There seems to be an overwhelming amount of statistics and numbers and barrels in this report that should deserve attention but not all of it. If we can go down to about page 57, Hirsch plans out three alternative mitigation scenarios. I Assuming action not initiated until peak arrives, II Assuming action initiated 10 years before peak arrives, III Assuming action is initiated 20 years before the peak. The results in implementing these scenarios are obvious where everyone knows that procrastination will not give a person the best scenario. Hirsch stated," I. While waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades. II. Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked. III. Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period."In conclusion with careful timing in mitigation, we can lessen or cease the costs from peak oil. The question is, we are all not sure when peak oil will specifically hit so we are now faced with a haunting danger. If peak oil was to happen decades away, our mitigation would not be at its full potential and if the government act now we risk poor use of resources. If peak oil was to happen sooner than that, then the failure of initiating mitigation would result in social and economic costs to the U.S and most likely the world. What matters now is to find out how much time do we have until peak really arrives.Like Hirsch said, "Large-scale mitigation is needed more than a decade before the onset of peaking if economic hardship is to be avoided". I'm not sure what Hirsch was trying to tell us here, but I don't there should be a problem wasting resources even though peak is a little more further than we all anticipated. Shouldn't the government focus on the well being of their people and our economy than to whine about "poor use of resources?" What I think is a poor use of resources is the fossil fuels wasted on the senseless war on Iraq. Hirsch mentioned the extreme change would cost trillions of dollars in changing our economy. He included suggestions that would take up to 10-20 years of "accelerated effort". He mentioned the suggestion ofI. Improved Oil Recovery, II. Use of Heavy oil, oil sands which can help increase production.III. Coal liquefaction, and lastly IV. GTL gas to liquid. These were the four best fuel production options as for now because enhanced oil recovery are accessible world wide, heavy oil/ oil sand development are currently invested in Canada and Venezuela. "Coal liquefaction was well developed and near commercial technology and GTL is commercially applicable where natural gas is remote from market."In order for us to begin practical moderation to the problems due to peak oil, Hirsch says we first have to revise our fuel efficient technologies. Technologies that can contribute to the fuel efficiency separate into two types. One which is "retrofits", which could enhance existing instruments we possess and the other "displacement technologies", which could get ride of existing equipment and replace them with more efficient oil consuming equipment.An example of this is the new hybrids that sometimes come up in commercials like for Honda, or Toyota. "A new technology in early commercial deployment is the hybrid system, based on either gasoline or diesel engines and batteries. In all- around driving tests, gasoline hybrids have been found to be 40 percent more efficient in small cars and 80 percent more efficient in family sedans. (Page 37 paragraph 3)This news is of course great news to hear, but will our slow push away from lessening our use of oil, push oil peak far enough until we come up with a plan to produce enough resources that will meet demands in the future? What we need is an affirmative plan, where there is mutual cooperation with the government and it's people. If only the government can inform everybody on what the hell is going on with the country's problems and issues, everyone would be more involved. Instead we wake up everyday in the morning, and get to work worrying about missing the bus, instead of worrying about the oil the bus is operated with. Everyone is so absorbed to what they're doing, and we don't stop to think what the hell is going on in the world? Instead we shrink our awareness as small as the cubicle we work in, as small as the T.V we have in the house. I know nobody wants to be the “bad guy”, but if politicians can one day grow some balls and tell the world what's really happening, and chill with that conspiracy shit then I guess we can begin to trust each other more. With trust, you will have no betrayal because you are secure that everybody lives by the same code and the same struggle.

My personal predictions of life after Oil Peak:
2010- Prices go up because of falling oil production, and low income families will not be able to afford the luxuries of owning a house or car. The upper and middle class are investing in solar panels, and windmills to power their condos or houses. They buy hydrocarbon cars or hybrids and start to invest their money on alternative energy sources. United States starts it's mitigation process now. Social Services are dwindling, health care coverage become a bigger issue, country's debt is still growing. Electricity and gas costs more money and we have to pay for tap water in New York. Rappers and Film makers spend more money on explosive scenes in Hollywood, and massive production of music CD's.

2015- Prices go up even higher. Airports go bankrupted. Only a few cars, trucks, and transportation services are around. The number of homeless people increase, and people start to eat less. People are getting laid from their jobs, and numbers of unemployed grow. Gangs, mobs, and organized crime grows. Prevention of crime becomes less effective, and organized gangs continue to grow due to the global recession and lack of support from the government. Government takes the growing crime rates seriously and privacy of the people are invaded. The military randomly ransacks homes for gang members and thieves.

2020- Food production becomes a problem, alternative fuel sources are developing very slowly, as oil production has gone as low as 200,000 barrels used per day in the U.S. The government takes action, and controls food distribution to the population. Money is taken away, those who had money could go exchange for credits. These credits are stored digitally and are recorded in government data base computers. With credits, loyal citizens can purchase items they please. Everyone is granted a daily ration and a few credits for everyday they work, and those who work more hours will be marked down and be given extra credits for their over time. The gangs start to die off from starvation and bloody gun fights. Military forces inspect the streets to make sure hungry criminals do not steal food or break into rich people's homes. Automobiles are out of the question the best means of transportation is on a bicycle. Only the rich, upper middle class, military and export/import companies get to travel in vehicles.

2025- Oil is completely depleted. Alternative resources still do not meet the demands of our lifeless citizens. Food is scarce, and meat is only eaten by politicians and the few rich men that are still around. There is no more upper middle, or middle class. There is only the poor, the rich, and the government. There are not more fat people in this country. Everybody has the body of Paris Hilton and the legs of our post modern fashion models. Credits are still in effect, and those who work are fed a daily ration, those who are homeless are left to die. Social services and health care are eliminated. A third world war breaks out for the right to obtain natural resources, and a Global Nuclear Apocalypse happens.

The way I envision life after peak oil, is a slow change in our social structure, but eventually the will of our people will begin to fade as problems like crime, energy supplies, transportation, and tremendous pressure from the oil refineries and alternative energy. Our government will of course try their best to protect it's people from the griming effects of life after peak oil, but their power to make sure everyone is fed and cared for also fades. I pictured our government as a soldier without a sword, trying to save his people as well as trying to save himself. When I mentioned a Global Nuclear Apocalypse, this was my prediction as to the last scenario of what life would be like after the peak oil. Due to all the drama and unstable countries, they will all strive for each other's resources in order to bring balance to their crumbling government. In order to do that there will be a nuclear war since the most destructive thing a country can do is send a missile that has the potential affect areas as large as New York City. Then when the opposing country is annihilated we go in and steal their resources, and hopefully benefit from our plunder.

Comments:
Hello Nian. You have a pretty optimistic view on what happens when that black sticky goo runs dry. There stills is some sort of order ("Government takes the growing crime rates seriously and privacy of the people are invaded. The military randomly ransacks homes for gang members and thieves.") One thing I am not sure about is the third world war. What will power the tanks when there's only a few drops of oil left?
You looked at the world 15 years from now...well, at least the world is still inhabitable. Like the environmental side effects in Feed and The Running Man are not happening. Since the burning of fossil fuels has been the main cause for many of the environmental harms today, continue buring them will cause even more harm.
Global warming created vast climate changes everywhere. Remember "The Day After Tomorrow"? If those weather phenomenons really occur (I am really sure they will), what will happen to the world? Will people start eating other people because food is so scarce?
 
Hello Nian. You have a pretty optimistic view on what happens when that black sticky goo runs dry. There stills is some sort of order ("Government takes the growing crime rates seriously and privacy of the people are invaded. The military randomly ransacks homes for gang members and thieves.") One thing I am not sure about is the third world war. What will power the tanks when there's only a few drops of oil left?
You looked at the world 15 years from now...well, at least the world is still inhabitable. Like the environmental side effects in Feed and The Running Man are not happening. Since the burning of fossil fuels has been the main cause for many of the environmental harms today, continue buring them will cause even more harm.
Global warming created vast climate changes everywhere. Remember "The Day After Tomorrow"? If those weather phenomenons really occur (I am really sure they will), what will happen to the world? Will people start eating other people because food is so scarce?
 
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