Friday, June 09, 2006
http://www.crudeawakening.org/Preparing.htm
I was searching in google for something related to the Post Peak Preparation topic we were talking about in class. The website was credible with a more deepened list of suggestions for preparation to Post Peak. (The link is above)
What I thought was a little bogus was when this article started off saying, "We must all do our part as citizens and also persuade government and industry to begin to prepare for these changing times in an energy constrained future." We all know the government, multi-billionare oil companies, baby faced celebrities, or even the average joe would most likely not leave their Ferrai's, Mercedes, Bmw's or empty out our pockets to support the preparation to a scientific prediction based on evidential logic. (it might sound dumb not to believe in the obvious, but some people just can't let go of the wealth they have, "its their only advantage in the world"). Instead oil companies and we the people continue to invest in critically using fossil fuels and continue to produce new technology advancing our use in this finite resource. No matter how logically correct post peak may sound, for instance the truth that oil is finite, many oil companies and the people are "optimitic". They believe technology and good faith will ensure the continuation of our american civilization. We are the core reasons to why our country is still manufactuering these thirsty "fossil fuel burning machines". The article is right about persuading the government and industry in changing our countries ways, but mutal effort and the threat of financial equality might shatter this thought of preparation.
Next the article introduces the question, What should individuals and families be considering now? First preparation idea was to reduce yours or your families reliance on infrastructure from central community services. They described examples of things to avoid using like electricity, running water, stove gas, transportation, anything that can be vulnerable to a oil shortage situation. I find this bull, because first of all, my family will not fetch reeked water from the dirty Hudson river or at Seaport, and spark rocks to make a fire and boil the damn water, just to get a "feel" in how post peak would feel like. Families would find this activity hard to accomplish because of the simplicity of things when it comes to running water, home lighting, or gas when fossil fuels are still in stock. Stopping their use of all these things would just make their lives more complicated than they already are, they might as well enjoy their lives for as long as they can before this destructive lifestyle actually begins to happen. They also mentioned that practising this might help save our family a lot of money, but if we compare to a rich man's capital to Whoopy the Irish hobo who lamps around on wall street with whiskey in his right hand, it might be best for Whoopy to practice these routines, but for the rich man, he doesn't have to give in these money problems because MONEY AINT A THANG! for him.
What I agree with in the article was their preparation by relying less on individual transportation, and instead use a type of transportation that carries masses instead of one person. (This usually happens in Suburbs where cars are needed to bring one or two persons from place to place, usually to work or the super market..."I learned this in class"). Unlike the suburbs, we live in New York City, where the MTA can almost take us anywhere in the city, as well as public buses or ferrys which all unfortunately consumes finite oil, but on the bright side travelling on buses and trains more often is a step closer in transforming ourselves from burning larger amounts of fossil fuels. Suggestions like relying on your fan instead of your AC plays a big role in the amount of energy consumption, especially in the summer, and also for winter where putting on more clothes can help in warming the body than clicking your thermostate nob higher. This will actually help us realize how cold winter really is, or hot global warming is really making our summers hotter.
The rest of the preparation suggestions I've already learned in Social Science, where building our own roof gardens or food should be learned, due to the lack of transportation of foods and goods in a post peak scenario. Also they mentioned simple repairs and "getting to know your neighbors" which the class also went over in deep discussions on Personal preparations for a post peak scenario.
What I want to know more about this article is, information on non-profit programs that are willing to train people who are interested in preparing for a Post Peak scenario, and provide them with real life experience. I personally wouldn't mind learning how to grow my own food, just in case there was a crazy potatoe disease that spread all over American farms, I would be able to grow my own delicacey of curry potatoes with rice.
What I thought was a little bogus was when this article started off saying, "We must all do our part as citizens and also persuade government and industry to begin to prepare for these changing times in an energy constrained future." We all know the government, multi-billionare oil companies, baby faced celebrities, or even the average joe would most likely not leave their Ferrai's, Mercedes, Bmw's or empty out our pockets to support the preparation to a scientific prediction based on evidential logic. (it might sound dumb not to believe in the obvious, but some people just can't let go of the wealth they have, "its their only advantage in the world"). Instead oil companies and we the people continue to invest in critically using fossil fuels and continue to produce new technology advancing our use in this finite resource. No matter how logically correct post peak may sound, for instance the truth that oil is finite, many oil companies and the people are "optimitic". They believe technology and good faith will ensure the continuation of our american civilization. We are the core reasons to why our country is still manufactuering these thirsty "fossil fuel burning machines". The article is right about persuading the government and industry in changing our countries ways, but mutal effort and the threat of financial equality might shatter this thought of preparation.
Next the article introduces the question, What should individuals and families be considering now? First preparation idea was to reduce yours or your families reliance on infrastructure from central community services. They described examples of things to avoid using like electricity, running water, stove gas, transportation, anything that can be vulnerable to a oil shortage situation. I find this bull, because first of all, my family will not fetch reeked water from the dirty Hudson river or at Seaport, and spark rocks to make a fire and boil the damn water, just to get a "feel" in how post peak would feel like. Families would find this activity hard to accomplish because of the simplicity of things when it comes to running water, home lighting, or gas when fossil fuels are still in stock. Stopping their use of all these things would just make their lives more complicated than they already are, they might as well enjoy their lives for as long as they can before this destructive lifestyle actually begins to happen. They also mentioned that practising this might help save our family a lot of money, but if we compare to a rich man's capital to Whoopy the Irish hobo who lamps around on wall street with whiskey in his right hand, it might be best for Whoopy to practice these routines, but for the rich man, he doesn't have to give in these money problems because MONEY AINT A THANG! for him.
What I agree with in the article was their preparation by relying less on individual transportation, and instead use a type of transportation that carries masses instead of one person. (This usually happens in Suburbs where cars are needed to bring one or two persons from place to place, usually to work or the super market..."I learned this in class"). Unlike the suburbs, we live in New York City, where the MTA can almost take us anywhere in the city, as well as public buses or ferrys which all unfortunately consumes finite oil, but on the bright side travelling on buses and trains more often is a step closer in transforming ourselves from burning larger amounts of fossil fuels. Suggestions like relying on your fan instead of your AC plays a big role in the amount of energy consumption, especially in the summer, and also for winter where putting on more clothes can help in warming the body than clicking your thermostate nob higher. This will actually help us realize how cold winter really is, or hot global warming is really making our summers hotter.
The rest of the preparation suggestions I've already learned in Social Science, where building our own roof gardens or food should be learned, due to the lack of transportation of foods and goods in a post peak scenario. Also they mentioned simple repairs and "getting to know your neighbors" which the class also went over in deep discussions on Personal preparations for a post peak scenario.
What I want to know more about this article is, information on non-profit programs that are willing to train people who are interested in preparing for a Post Peak scenario, and provide them with real life experience. I personally wouldn't mind learning how to grow my own food, just in case there was a crazy potatoe disease that spread all over American farms, I would be able to grow my own delicacey of curry potatoes with rice.
Sunday, June 04, 2006
Barry Comment
What's good my homie,
I agree how cocky people can be when they have hold of wealth and how optimistic they seem when there's bad news. I feel you on your comment about how the rich are too complexed and cannot adapt as easily as the poor where as we live a more simple life where we don't need as many things as they do. Remember the time when we was playing cards upstairs white crane, Tommy did not want to listen to us at all, he just hated the bad news we was telling him and it just seemed as if life was all good. Even though we feel the same way, where was there's not much impact immenent peak oil has on our daily routined life, we are aware of what's going to happen when we run out of supplies. Its just hard for us to actually believe if peak oil is really going to happen, and dedicate our lives preparing for something not as logical. Like you said, people dont seem to believe in things that aren't "as logical" meaning not seen with their own common sense, then they wouldn't be likely to believe that this prediction is overall true. Therefore our home boy Tommy had a hard time understanding us, as well as taking the presented problem seriously.
We came upon a situation where the U.S economy would most likely drop when peak oil happens and our wealthy friend would lose a lot of his capital due to economic deflation. We stumble upon something that seemed true, to where the lost of his wealth would still insure a well life even in the age of peak oil, and this is because of the wealth he has already started. Comparing to a lowered income family, when the scenario of peak oil actually happens, they would have the least chance of surviving because of the high costs of maintaining an average living lifestyle. Costs will rise up, the poor will not be able to afford the rent to the homes they live in, or electricity. Tommy on the other hand, can still afford a decent apartment, with lighting and eat well.
I agree how cocky people can be when they have hold of wealth and how optimistic they seem when there's bad news. I feel you on your comment about how the rich are too complexed and cannot adapt as easily as the poor where as we live a more simple life where we don't need as many things as they do. Remember the time when we was playing cards upstairs white crane, Tommy did not want to listen to us at all, he just hated the bad news we was telling him and it just seemed as if life was all good. Even though we feel the same way, where was there's not much impact immenent peak oil has on our daily routined life, we are aware of what's going to happen when we run out of supplies. Its just hard for us to actually believe if peak oil is really going to happen, and dedicate our lives preparing for something not as logical. Like you said, people dont seem to believe in things that aren't "as logical" meaning not seen with their own common sense, then they wouldn't be likely to believe that this prediction is overall true. Therefore our home boy Tommy had a hard time understanding us, as well as taking the presented problem seriously.
We came upon a situation where the U.S economy would most likely drop when peak oil happens and our wealthy friend would lose a lot of his capital due to economic deflation. We stumble upon something that seemed true, to where the lost of his wealth would still insure a well life even in the age of peak oil, and this is because of the wealth he has already started. Comparing to a lowered income family, when the scenario of peak oil actually happens, they would have the least chance of surviving because of the high costs of maintaining an average living lifestyle. Costs will rise up, the poor will not be able to afford the rent to the homes they live in, or electricity. Tommy on the other hand, can still afford a decent apartment, with lighting and eat well.
Convincing my parents.
Today I tried convincing my dad in believing Peak Oil and he doesn't seem to be really into it. My mom seemed to be cooperative but as I kept explaining peak oil to her in Cantonese, the ideas I bring up slowly gets weaker and weaker, and I end up repeating myself. The reason why I didn't continue to engage in convincing my mom to change her habits or change the way she lives because she doesn't have capital. She doesn't have time to learn how to wipe her ass in the forest using leaves, or light the stove with rocks and sticks while others get a flame with just a turn of a knob. I didn't want to talk to them anymore about peak oil, because I noticed that change was nearly impossible for them both. First of all, they dont have money like those "tea sippers" who has the option to "not work", and are they seriously going to invest their money on a freaking windmill or take care of worms that rely on imported vegetables transported
by vehicle and plantations that use oil? Lets say we start growing crops and worms on our roof, our land lord's going to force us to tear everything down and there goes our alternative adaptive skill. Life in society is like the flow in the river, those who go against the flow will have a hard time living in the society, and as of now, changing the ways my parents routinely live can't be done. Because they don't know much english, and was raised in a poor family when they were young, they won't engage much in changing their ways.
Like I mentioned to most of my friends, my phrase in life is, "Money means more options." We can't change anything. I have a lack of faith in changing my parents, because life is hard as of now, I just don't want to make things even harder for my parents. My mom and dad believe that if it was meant to be, to die because of human ignorance and procrastination, then so be it. Let the few that survive either learn or repeat their stupid mistakes and probably start a new civilization where people don't seperate themselves from the rest of the world that intensively. In life there will always be an asshole that will ruin your day, steal the girl of your dreams, or revving their lamborghini while you ride your bike. In order for my parents to survive this peak oil situation, I have to find a way to get a resourceful job so my family wouldn't be at the bottom of the work pyramid. I would like the option to do everything a rich man can do, and I would like everyone else to have the same options also.
Analysis: Convincing my parents into changing their ways was unsuccesful, due to the reality issue of money and the amount of time they can actually spend revisting some of the adaptive skills they learned in China. Also to practise adaptive skills in New York wouldn't be the best place to be, because of the complexity of this place. It was nice for my father and mother to know that the end of most of the lower income families will be very soon. Now my mom's going to work harder in her dust filled factory hoping she can make extra money so our family has the option of surviving a economic collpase. With the money she plans to save for any emergency use, but she started doing this way before I mentioned peak oil. In my family there was always money saved in case of any emergency, like a law suit, a new house etc. With this money we just hope we can survive peak oil, having enough to survive for an extra month or so if it gets really serious. Thats all my parents have planned, using the amount of emergency money we have saved up to push our family's prosperity for the longest we possibily can. Life is unfair, and the poor beats the rich from a ratio to 100,000:1 (estimate).
by vehicle and plantations that use oil? Lets say we start growing crops and worms on our roof, our land lord's going to force us to tear everything down and there goes our alternative adaptive skill. Life in society is like the flow in the river, those who go against the flow will have a hard time living in the society, and as of now, changing the ways my parents routinely live can't be done. Because they don't know much english, and was raised in a poor family when they were young, they won't engage much in changing their ways.
Like I mentioned to most of my friends, my phrase in life is, "Money means more options." We can't change anything. I have a lack of faith in changing my parents, because life is hard as of now, I just don't want to make things even harder for my parents. My mom and dad believe that if it was meant to be, to die because of human ignorance and procrastination, then so be it. Let the few that survive either learn or repeat their stupid mistakes and probably start a new civilization where people don't seperate themselves from the rest of the world that intensively. In life there will always be an asshole that will ruin your day, steal the girl of your dreams, or revving their lamborghini while you ride your bike. In order for my parents to survive this peak oil situation, I have to find a way to get a resourceful job so my family wouldn't be at the bottom of the work pyramid. I would like the option to do everything a rich man can do, and I would like everyone else to have the same options also.
Analysis: Convincing my parents into changing their ways was unsuccesful, due to the reality issue of money and the amount of time they can actually spend revisting some of the adaptive skills they learned in China. Also to practise adaptive skills in New York wouldn't be the best place to be, because of the complexity of this place. It was nice for my father and mother to know that the end of most of the lower income families will be very soon. Now my mom's going to work harder in her dust filled factory hoping she can make extra money so our family has the option of surviving a economic collpase. With the money she plans to save for any emergency use, but she started doing this way before I mentioned peak oil. In my family there was always money saved in case of any emergency, like a law suit, a new house etc. With this money we just hope we can survive peak oil, having enough to survive for an extra month or so if it gets really serious. Thats all my parents have planned, using the amount of emergency money we have saved up to push our family's prosperity for the longest we possibily can. Life is unfair, and the poor beats the rich from a ratio to 100,000:1 (estimate).
Response to Andy's Peak Oil Adaptive Methods
"What is good" Andy,I just finished reading your interesting Post Peak Adaptive skills, and I find these ideas significant and thoughtful but I can't imagine myself growing potatoes in my apartment. We require large amounts of organic fertilizer and water to nurture our potatoes. In order for us to create organic fertilizer we need to research more about the worms that farmers used in Cuba that made these fertilzers, and ways to ensure a healthy life for the crops. New York City's weather isn't the greatest place to be planting crops, due to the air, cold seasons, and probably hungry insects or mice. Also, if we just imagine ourselves in the Peak Oil situation, there would probably be no faucet water, and we would have to haul our tired bodies to the east rive with the "swimming dolphins," and try to get water from there. As we bring back the reeking smell of East River water, this is where learning to build a fire without gasoline comes in handy when facing a Peak Oil situation. I believe this is the first crutial thing we all should learn when Peak Oil does happen. Fire is a source of energy, we can use it to boil water, cook food, or even scare away hungry coyotes in the forest. I find it hard starting all these exercises like entering the wood and learn how to wipe my buttocks with a leaf instead of toliet paper, or take care of myself with nothing but a two rocks that spark everytime I strike them together or learning another language when I'm struggling to eloquently fashion my English speaking and writing skills. I have a question for you Andy. Maybe you feel the same way as me. Like we talked about in class, when we were laughing at the comments in class, we all looked at each other to see other people's reaction. Right now, I think everyone is aware that this serious, life or death situation is going to happen but their reaction and implementations I see is more like, "wow this is really going to happen, but everythings going so smoothly. We learn that oil is being depleted in an overwhelmingly rate and the consequences of rising prices on oil pumps. But our friends are still driving and hanging out blasting their music, we see people drinking wine dining on the outside of little italy. New movies are coming out, like X-men Three, and The Omen (06/06/06) and it gives people the impression that we are still "moving on," we're still growing as a civilization, sorta providing us the message to live on with our lives, screw the thought of peak oil. Get high off this last drop of oil before you disappear on this earth entirely. But again, the messages from these movies can also give us a negative message that we aren't really looking at as closely. For X-men 3, the movie makers call this "THE LAST STAND", giving the message about our civilization (the mutants) struggling to survive life after peak oil (angry humans who's temper has reached its peak) where as in THE OMEN, evil is born, and people start dying because of this "uncontrollable" evil threat that walks the earth.As long as everything continues to grow, and people's lives continue without change in the way they live, then everyone's going to have the expression where life is good. Lets get bent drinking at bars, lets make love with your loved ones, lets sip on champagne on our oil powered cruise boat. I believe it's good practice to destroy our daily routine in life and see how it feels like not to depend on the power structures that shape our life. But there's consequences that we wouldn't like to face. If I decide not to use my computer or any type of electricty in the household, then I guess I wouldn't be able to type 2000 words by midnight, as well find my way to the bathroom and aim correctly at the toliet bowl.
Sunday, May 28, 2006
News Article Response
You know what this means guys...ITS THE END OF THE WORLD. ITS A SIGN. First comes fear, then comes plague, then comes wrath, then comes armageddon (however you spell it). Also you know there are freaking DOLPHINS in the east river everyone? I mean there's got to be a reason why there are dolphins in our east river. There must be something going on out there, dolphins sense that shit. And you know what's even more weird?!! They seem to be doing well in the east river. They're literally chillin in the east river which is usually reeked with the smell of feces and sewer water.http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=950DE1DB1730F936A15755C0A96F948260 And what's up with that hurricane that's suppose to be coming soon this summer? Also there's a child born in India with a tail, scientists believe its a deformity of extra skin, while in India religious believers are convinced the baby is a reincarnation of Lord Hanuman the monkey faced god.With his genetic mutation, Balaji is now worshiped, by millions of Indians and with a little bit of greed that exists in his grandfather, he makes a little side money charging people to see the baby as they travel.http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/fr/607381/postsAlso, June 6th 2006 is coming up real soon. People are saying when this day hits, something crazy is going to happen.(well religous believers say the skys going to crack open and "angels" are going to fly down to save the "good" while the world is burning in flames and contaminated with "demons")And some prophecy that "SATAN's" son will apppear on earth as someone with power like G.W Bush Jr, and with political strategy he'll plan to destroy the world in secret. Then some weird savor is going to be chosen from GOD to save mankind, preferably the Pope, which is said to be black? Or maybe a high school philosopher teacher, that will save mankind and cleanse their minds by providing them awareness and life to their controlled minds. I don't really believe this myself but we can wait and see I guess. If the end of the world really did happen, I guess we can all do what humans have always done...wait till the last minute. 06/06/06
Sunday, May 21, 2006
My bullshit thoughts if your interested
Why are we waiting for collapse to happen. We are still moving. Why don't we stop. We are still comsuming, why do we still consume? We talk about peak oil, we mention solutions. Why are we still consuming? If this was so important then why are these we still driving our cars to the super market and not building a solar panals or wind mills even though we know about peak oil? Is it because everyone is waiting for the Hero to step up? To get the masses moving? Is everyone that scared? Scared move away from the regulated culture in society? Do we love our lives so much, that we rather die than to give up our 5 floor home or BMW M5? It seems to me we are enjoying our last breaths in this world. Nobody wants to give up everything they have, nobody is that stupid. There's always an asshole for every person in this world, life is unfair. You never get what you want. Life and death come easy. What we don't understand is the real meaning to why we exist on earth. T.V, entertainment, fashion, art, and bullshit like the chocolate covering on a donut. We only see the chocolate covering and not the donut. We are meant to live. But what is important is our way of living before death. Some people live better than others. That explains why for ones success is anothers failure, this is what we call capitalism. To compete and win, to make it to the top. But when others ask the wealthy and well off to give up our "climax" in life (living wealthy) it is just too hard.
Poor people stuggle to achieve climax, just think of it as something naughty, and the poor are those people are working it and working it trying to achieve climax. Once you up there bro, you don't want to come back down. (Im being sarcastic) You chillin mann, you enjoying it, you deserve it. You deserve the plasma t.v, you deserve the sauna in your bathroom, the pool on your roof, your hot gold digger wife. If you gave it all up, chicks won't like youu...nobody will like you, the world will hate you is what most people think. If reality it is true, and it has been applied and dug deep into everyone's mind. So would the world cooperate as we anticipate in all these successful communal solutions to post peak oil? Or would everyone just hold on to their assets and wait for their deaths.
If we continue to seperate ourselves with stupid ranks and living classes, than we will never cooperate and succeed as a whole. There shouldn't be jobs like cleaning toilets and shit. Everyone should clean after themselves. We're getting lazier and lazier, we rather drive to the super market 8 blocks down rather than walking, we rather buy water than drinking it from the faucet. Back in the "old" days people use to live miles away from each other and they be riding horses and shit. Right now I am just confused, and pissed off about this stupid peak oil shit. I think its important but what the hell man. I ask myself now...Where's the hype? How come everybody is still buying shit? Look at them celebrities, fucking Jim Jones and his fucking big
ass diamond medalion. P diddy, and his million doller parties on a plane going back and forth from U.S to Japan. Maybe I'm just jealous, maybe I'm not seeing things right. I still want to buy clothes man, this is bogus, I don't know what's going on right now.
Poor people stuggle to achieve climax, just think of it as something naughty, and the poor are those people are working it and working it trying to achieve climax. Once you up there bro, you don't want to come back down. (Im being sarcastic) You chillin mann, you enjoying it, you deserve it. You deserve the plasma t.v, you deserve the sauna in your bathroom, the pool on your roof, your hot gold digger wife. If you gave it all up, chicks won't like youu...nobody will like you, the world will hate you is what most people think. If reality it is true, and it has been applied and dug deep into everyone's mind. So would the world cooperate as we anticipate in all these successful communal solutions to post peak oil? Or would everyone just hold on to their assets and wait for their deaths.
If we continue to seperate ourselves with stupid ranks and living classes, than we will never cooperate and succeed as a whole. There shouldn't be jobs like cleaning toilets and shit. Everyone should clean after themselves. We're getting lazier and lazier, we rather drive to the super market 8 blocks down rather than walking, we rather buy water than drinking it from the faucet. Back in the "old" days people use to live miles away from each other and they be riding horses and shit. Right now I am just confused, and pissed off about this stupid peak oil shit. I think its important but what the hell man. I ask myself now...Where's the hype? How come everybody is still buying shit? Look at them celebrities, fucking Jim Jones and his fucking big
ass diamond medalion. P diddy, and his million doller parties on a plane going back and forth from U.S to Japan. Maybe I'm just jealous, maybe I'm not seeing things right. I still want to buy clothes man, this is bogus, I don't know what's going on right now.
Response to Barry's Post
Comment to Habludulumen,
I strongly agree with you Barry. We know where our parents come from "far" east, they work hard to earn so little, and they all hoped to find a better future living in the small tenament buildings that this greate city had to offered for us. As far as I know, my parents are ignorant about the fact of peak oil, and what I find funny is when I told my dad about peak oil, he mentioned about getting oil from the moon? After that comment I knew I totally lost him, it seems that people not really knowing what is peak oil and the change it can create in our everyday life..
You stated, "I believe the two main responses would be that everyone would use their whole life time savings and bring their family back to where they came from. And to those who are actually from America, they are screwed." I agree with you because New York is a city too complexed. People dont get along with one another, rich corrupts the poor, racial profiling, conspiracy, and other bullshit. America's dept is in the trillions now and when peak oil actually comes, our country won't be able to handle the recession. I believe this problem will happen to China also, and if Chinese families was to go back into the villages that they once came from, I think they should learn more on how to be more self reliant, and as well grow crops from organic fertilizers and learn how to make wind mills to power their homes? But again, China don't play, they are serious when it comes down to being individual and not obeying the country. Even though we didn't learn much about how China would handle a peak oil, I think the they would have a tougher time because of it's gigantic population. They might force villages to give up surplus rations to feed the hungry cities that populate most of China and not let farmers make money off the surplus. And having my opinion based on the history of China, if villages or any individual resist China's orders, they might be detained or even killed. Based on C. But if China ended up the way Cuba did and allowed villages and small communities to grow crops and be able to be more self reliant and eliminate competition then I guess China would be a pretty good place, since most Chinese families in America still have homes back in villages or the cities. I don't know, this is sorta random, but I wanted to see what you think will happen when families actually do move back into our homelands, and what picture do you see. Do you see little chinese kids running around butt naked on a farm or village people living together growing crops, walking around Toi San picking up herbs and constructing wind mills.
And about the gangs in New York, I also believe they will rise, when peak oil comes. I think these gangs aren't going to be controlled by the poor but instead the rich merchants who already has resources to power organize crime. The poor will be the ones that most likely join these gangs, because their means of survival depends on the government and funds like welfare, SSI and all that. When oil production dips below oil demands, many people are going to be laid off from work by companies that want to save money. And as a result they're going to be forced to be in a situation where it's either do or die, so they end up joining these mobs and gangs supplied by large corporations that has excess money that will feed these people in return, commit crime to sabotage other corporations. Thats what happened in Chinatown back in the days. The chinese merchants association was a group of filthy rich asian merchants who dominated sales and stores in different areas of chinatown. They were the suppliers for the poor families who work in chinatown way below minimum wage. The income coming from these jobs were definitely not enough to pay for their living costs, and in return they decided to join these associations and be one of their pawns for the associations.
Also to mention, for the social struction in New York the immigrants play an important role in supporting the rich corporations who are on top. We clean their freaking bathrooms, we nanny their spoiled babies, and we cut our fingers making their clothes, and when our country's economy collapses, immigrants are not going to leave. When we leave, the middle class will have to substitute the lower class. The height of the upper class will drop as well as the other classes of people. This is all random thoughts, so don't mind me if you dont understand anything.
I strongly agree with you Barry. We know where our parents come from "far" east, they work hard to earn so little, and they all hoped to find a better future living in the small tenament buildings that this greate city had to offered for us. As far as I know, my parents are ignorant about the fact of peak oil, and what I find funny is when I told my dad about peak oil, he mentioned about getting oil from the moon? After that comment I knew I totally lost him, it seems that people not really knowing what is peak oil and the change it can create in our everyday life..
You stated, "I believe the two main responses would be that everyone would use their whole life time savings and bring their family back to where they came from. And to those who are actually from America, they are screwed." I agree with you because New York is a city too complexed. People dont get along with one another, rich corrupts the poor, racial profiling, conspiracy, and other bullshit. America's dept is in the trillions now and when peak oil actually comes, our country won't be able to handle the recession. I believe this problem will happen to China also, and if Chinese families was to go back into the villages that they once came from, I think they should learn more on how to be more self reliant, and as well grow crops from organic fertilizers and learn how to make wind mills to power their homes? But again, China don't play, they are serious when it comes down to being individual and not obeying the country. Even though we didn't learn much about how China would handle a peak oil, I think the they would have a tougher time because of it's gigantic population. They might force villages to give up surplus rations to feed the hungry cities that populate most of China and not let farmers make money off the surplus. And having my opinion based on the history of China, if villages or any individual resist China's orders, they might be detained or even killed. Based on C. But if China ended up the way Cuba did and allowed villages and small communities to grow crops and be able to be more self reliant and eliminate competition then I guess China would be a pretty good place, since most Chinese families in America still have homes back in villages or the cities. I don't know, this is sorta random, but I wanted to see what you think will happen when families actually do move back into our homelands, and what picture do you see. Do you see little chinese kids running around butt naked on a farm or village people living together growing crops, walking around Toi San picking up herbs and constructing wind mills.
And about the gangs in New York, I also believe they will rise, when peak oil comes. I think these gangs aren't going to be controlled by the poor but instead the rich merchants who already has resources to power organize crime. The poor will be the ones that most likely join these gangs, because their means of survival depends on the government and funds like welfare, SSI and all that. When oil production dips below oil demands, many people are going to be laid off from work by companies that want to save money. And as a result they're going to be forced to be in a situation where it's either do or die, so they end up joining these mobs and gangs supplied by large corporations that has excess money that will feed these people in return, commit crime to sabotage other corporations. Thats what happened in Chinatown back in the days. The chinese merchants association was a group of filthy rich asian merchants who dominated sales and stores in different areas of chinatown. They were the suppliers for the poor families who work in chinatown way below minimum wage. The income coming from these jobs were definitely not enough to pay for their living costs, and in return they decided to join these associations and be one of their pawns for the associations.
Also to mention, for the social struction in New York the immigrants play an important role in supporting the rich corporations who are on top. We clean their freaking bathrooms, we nanny their spoiled babies, and we cut our fingers making their clothes, and when our country's economy collapses, immigrants are not going to leave. When we leave, the middle class will have to substitute the lower class. The height of the upper class will drop as well as the other classes of people. This is all random thoughts, so don't mind me if you dont understand anything.
Cuba's Survival After Peak Oil.
When the soviet union collapsed, oil imports ceased by 80 percent in Cuba. In addition the United states implimented the block off of all trades entering and leaving Cuba, making Cuba even more vulnerable than it was before. With the absence of oil, Cuba's bus services and all transportation had ceased and stopped working. In addition to that, food production and consumption had been dropping increasingly, pushing Cuba into famine. It said that the average Cuban had lost about 20 lbs as an result to the argiculture failure. Without the use of fossil fuels that Cuba thirved on, it made agriculture extremely hard, and crops start to wither without the appropriate care they once had. Ariculture had always relied on the burning of fossil fuels to increase crop yields yearly where it made it possible to have a surplus of food in a large population. This was the type of agriculture Cuba slept on. This scenario in Cuba, is an excellent example to the potential damage peak oil can cause. Facing a collapse, Cuba's only solution to save their people was to maintain it's country with minimal dependence on the small amounts of fossil fuels they possess.
A specific step in cuba, was the construction of Urban agricultural gardens, and the fashion of having natural roof gardens in Cuba, Havana was influenced all over the city. Large quantities of bicycles was bought from China, and then
distributed to Cuba's citizens. Doctors, lawyers, middle class workers, everyone had to ride these bicycles and this gave closure for Cuba's transportation crisis. Another successful solution to Cuba's Oil Crisis was the equal distribution of food rations to every individual no matter their wealth. With this rule in effect and processed, the fear of starvation in Cuba diminished. The generousity and balance of food rations made it possible for a mutal relationship between Cubans, where no families have more than another family. I believe mentally that this ration helped reduce crime in Cuba by providing the picture to Cubans that everyone was in the same situation, where no ones better off than the other, and the distribution of rations to "every" family, might have changed a father's mind to rob a farm when his family has enough to eat. It's this equality that I think help provide the right mood of Cuba's people, to live in mutally with cooperation and to follow a communal goal.
Another solution Cuba implemented was the introduction to self reliant jobs. Every citizen learned to produce their own crops, how to deal with soil, etc. Basically they were taught how to maintain their existence with the little or no reliance on stores or markets. Farmers in Cuba who relied on fertilizers that come from fossil fuels made their own fertilizers. They raised tons of worms to help them produce organic fertilizers that improved their recovering agriculture, and in return was able to harvest healthier crops. A Cuban farmer said that for every one ton of worms they can produce about 5 tons of fertilizer for their crop fields. Tracters and harvesters in farms stayed in the barns covered with dust for the thirst of these machines cannot be quenched. Therefore farmers resort back into owning oxens that helped pull and plow the fields.
Farmers became more and more valued in Cuba and due to their success, they later became the "highest paid workers" in Cuba. There as a decent flow food production, back into Cuba. Where fresh lettuce and vegetables made with organic fertilizers, and fruits such as grapes that gave Cubans the delicacey of having wine and more food options. Cuban culture remained same. The only thing that changed was the way Cubans lived. Cities that shined grey with cement, are now covered in greens due to natural roof gardens, people are now more self reliant, and the country showed that they did not give in the pressure from the absence of oil. They survived as a whole, and the message from this era in Cuba tells everyone else that cooperation, mutual gain and natural solutions can ensure survival without oil.
A specific step in cuba, was the construction of Urban agricultural gardens, and the fashion of having natural roof gardens in Cuba, Havana was influenced all over the city. Large quantities of bicycles was bought from China, and then
distributed to Cuba's citizens. Doctors, lawyers, middle class workers, everyone had to ride these bicycles and this gave closure for Cuba's transportation crisis. Another successful solution to Cuba's Oil Crisis was the equal distribution of food rations to every individual no matter their wealth. With this rule in effect and processed, the fear of starvation in Cuba diminished. The generousity and balance of food rations made it possible for a mutal relationship between Cubans, where no families have more than another family. I believe mentally that this ration helped reduce crime in Cuba by providing the picture to Cubans that everyone was in the same situation, where no ones better off than the other, and the distribution of rations to "every" family, might have changed a father's mind to rob a farm when his family has enough to eat. It's this equality that I think help provide the right mood of Cuba's people, to live in mutally with cooperation and to follow a communal goal.
Another solution Cuba implemented was the introduction to self reliant jobs. Every citizen learned to produce their own crops, how to deal with soil, etc. Basically they were taught how to maintain their existence with the little or no reliance on stores or markets. Farmers in Cuba who relied on fertilizers that come from fossil fuels made their own fertilizers. They raised tons of worms to help them produce organic fertilizers that improved their recovering agriculture, and in return was able to harvest healthier crops. A Cuban farmer said that for every one ton of worms they can produce about 5 tons of fertilizer for their crop fields. Tracters and harvesters in farms stayed in the barns covered with dust for the thirst of these machines cannot be quenched. Therefore farmers resort back into owning oxens that helped pull and plow the fields.
Farmers became more and more valued in Cuba and due to their success, they later became the "highest paid workers" in Cuba. There as a decent flow food production, back into Cuba. Where fresh lettuce and vegetables made with organic fertilizers, and fruits such as grapes that gave Cubans the delicacey of having wine and more food options. Cuban culture remained same. The only thing that changed was the way Cubans lived. Cities that shined grey with cement, are now covered in greens due to natural roof gardens, people are now more self reliant, and the country showed that they did not give in the pressure from the absence of oil. They survived as a whole, and the message from this era in Cuba tells everyone else that cooperation, mutual gain and natural solutions can ensure survival without oil.
Sunday, May 14, 2006
Hirsch Report Response
There seems to be an overwhelming amount of statistics and numbers and barrels in this report that should deserve attention but not all of it. If we can go down to about page 57, Hirsch plans out three alternative mitigation scenarios. I Assuming action not initiated until peak arrives, II Assuming action initiated 10 years before peak arrives, III Assuming action is initiated 20 years before the peak. The results in implementing these scenarios are obvious where everyone knows that procrastination will not give a person the best scenario. Hirsch stated," I. While waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades. II. Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked. III. Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period."In conclusion with careful timing in mitigation, we can lessen or cease the costs from peak oil. The question is, we are all not sure when peak oil will specifically hit so we are now faced with a haunting danger. If peak oil was to happen decades away, our mitigation would not be at its full potential and if the government act now we risk poor use of resources. If peak oil was to happen sooner than that, then the failure of initiating mitigation would result in social and economic costs to the U.S and most likely the world. What matters now is to find out how much time do we have until peak really arrives.Like Hirsch said, "Large-scale mitigation is needed more than a decade before the onset of peaking if economic hardship is to be avoided". I'm not sure what Hirsch was trying to tell us here, but I don't there should be a problem wasting resources even though peak is a little more further than we all anticipated. Shouldn't the government focus on the well being of their people and our economy than to whine about "poor use of resources?" What I think is a poor use of resources is the fossil fuels wasted on the senseless war on Iraq. Hirsch mentioned the extreme change would cost trillions of dollars in changing our economy. He included suggestions that would take up to 10-20 years of "accelerated effort". He mentioned the suggestion ofI. Improved Oil Recovery, II. Use of Heavy oil, oil sands which can help increase production.III. Coal liquefaction, and lastly IV. GTL gas to liquid. These were the four best fuel production options as for now because enhanced oil recovery are accessible world wide, heavy oil/ oil sand development are currently invested in Canada and Venezuela. "Coal liquefaction was well developed and near commercial technology and GTL is commercially applicable where natural gas is remote from market."In order for us to begin practical moderation to the problems due to peak oil, Hirsch says we first have to revise our fuel efficient technologies. Technologies that can contribute to the fuel efficiency separate into two types. One which is "retrofits", which could enhance existing instruments we possess and the other "displacement technologies", which could get ride of existing equipment and replace them with more efficient oil consuming equipment.An example of this is the new hybrids that sometimes come up in commercials like for Honda, or Toyota. "A new technology in early commercial deployment is the hybrid system, based on either gasoline or diesel engines and batteries. In all- around driving tests, gasoline hybrids have been found to be 40 percent more efficient in small cars and 80 percent more efficient in family sedans. (Page 37 paragraph 3)This news is of course great news to hear, but will our slow push away from lessening our use of oil, push oil peak far enough until we come up with a plan to produce enough resources that will meet demands in the future? What we need is an affirmative plan, where there is mutual cooperation with the government and it's people. If only the government can inform everybody on what the hell is going on with the country's problems and issues, everyone would be more involved. Instead we wake up everyday in the morning, and get to work worrying about missing the bus, instead of worrying about the oil the bus is operated with. Everyone is so absorbed to what they're doing, and we don't stop to think what the hell is going on in the world? Instead we shrink our awareness as small as the cubicle we work in, as small as the T.V we have in the house. I know nobody wants to be the “bad guy”, but if politicians can one day grow some balls and tell the world what's really happening, and chill with that conspiracy shit then I guess we can begin to trust each other more. With trust, you will have no betrayal because you are secure that everybody lives by the same code and the same struggle.
My personal predictions of life after Oil Peak:
2010- Prices go up because of falling oil production, and low income families will not be able to afford the luxuries of owning a house or car. The upper and middle class are investing in solar panels, and windmills to power their condos or houses. They buy hydrocarbon cars or hybrids and start to invest their money on alternative energy sources. United States starts it's mitigation process now. Social Services are dwindling, health care coverage become a bigger issue, country's debt is still growing. Electricity and gas costs more money and we have to pay for tap water in New York. Rappers and Film makers spend more money on explosive scenes in Hollywood, and massive production of music CD's.
2015- Prices go up even higher. Airports go bankrupted. Only a few cars, trucks, and transportation services are around. The number of homeless people increase, and people start to eat less. People are getting laid from their jobs, and numbers of unemployed grow. Gangs, mobs, and organized crime grows. Prevention of crime becomes less effective, and organized gangs continue to grow due to the global recession and lack of support from the government. Government takes the growing crime rates seriously and privacy of the people are invaded. The military randomly ransacks homes for gang members and thieves.
2020- Food production becomes a problem, alternative fuel sources are developing very slowly, as oil production has gone as low as 200,000 barrels used per day in the U.S. The government takes action, and controls food distribution to the population. Money is taken away, those who had money could go exchange for credits. These credits are stored digitally and are recorded in government data base computers. With credits, loyal citizens can purchase items they please. Everyone is granted a daily ration and a few credits for everyday they work, and those who work more hours will be marked down and be given extra credits for their over time. The gangs start to die off from starvation and bloody gun fights. Military forces inspect the streets to make sure hungry criminals do not steal food or break into rich people's homes. Automobiles are out of the question the best means of transportation is on a bicycle. Only the rich, upper middle class, military and export/import companies get to travel in vehicles.
2025- Oil is completely depleted. Alternative resources still do not meet the demands of our lifeless citizens. Food is scarce, and meat is only eaten by politicians and the few rich men that are still around. There is no more upper middle, or middle class. There is only the poor, the rich, and the government. There are not more fat people in this country. Everybody has the body of Paris Hilton and the legs of our post modern fashion models. Credits are still in effect, and those who work are fed a daily ration, those who are homeless are left to die. Social services and health care are eliminated. A third world war breaks out for the right to obtain natural resources, and a Global Nuclear Apocalypse happens.
The way I envision life after peak oil, is a slow change in our social structure, but eventually the will of our people will begin to fade as problems like crime, energy supplies, transportation, and tremendous pressure from the oil refineries and alternative energy. Our government will of course try their best to protect it's people from the griming effects of life after peak oil, but their power to make sure everyone is fed and cared for also fades. I pictured our government as a soldier without a sword, trying to save his people as well as trying to save himself. When I mentioned a Global Nuclear Apocalypse, this was my prediction as to the last scenario of what life would be like after the peak oil. Due to all the drama and unstable countries, they will all strive for each other's resources in order to bring balance to their crumbling government. In order to do that there will be a nuclear war since the most destructive thing a country can do is send a missile that has the potential affect areas as large as New York City. Then when the opposing country is annihilated we go in and steal their resources, and hopefully benefit from our plunder.
My personal predictions of life after Oil Peak:
2010- Prices go up because of falling oil production, and low income families will not be able to afford the luxuries of owning a house or car. The upper and middle class are investing in solar panels, and windmills to power their condos or houses. They buy hydrocarbon cars or hybrids and start to invest their money on alternative energy sources. United States starts it's mitigation process now. Social Services are dwindling, health care coverage become a bigger issue, country's debt is still growing. Electricity and gas costs more money and we have to pay for tap water in New York. Rappers and Film makers spend more money on explosive scenes in Hollywood, and massive production of music CD's.
2015- Prices go up even higher. Airports go bankrupted. Only a few cars, trucks, and transportation services are around. The number of homeless people increase, and people start to eat less. People are getting laid from their jobs, and numbers of unemployed grow. Gangs, mobs, and organized crime grows. Prevention of crime becomes less effective, and organized gangs continue to grow due to the global recession and lack of support from the government. Government takes the growing crime rates seriously and privacy of the people are invaded. The military randomly ransacks homes for gang members and thieves.
2020- Food production becomes a problem, alternative fuel sources are developing very slowly, as oil production has gone as low as 200,000 barrels used per day in the U.S. The government takes action, and controls food distribution to the population. Money is taken away, those who had money could go exchange for credits. These credits are stored digitally and are recorded in government data base computers. With credits, loyal citizens can purchase items they please. Everyone is granted a daily ration and a few credits for everyday they work, and those who work more hours will be marked down and be given extra credits for their over time. The gangs start to die off from starvation and bloody gun fights. Military forces inspect the streets to make sure hungry criminals do not steal food or break into rich people's homes. Automobiles are out of the question the best means of transportation is on a bicycle. Only the rich, upper middle class, military and export/import companies get to travel in vehicles.
2025- Oil is completely depleted. Alternative resources still do not meet the demands of our lifeless citizens. Food is scarce, and meat is only eaten by politicians and the few rich men that are still around. There is no more upper middle, or middle class. There is only the poor, the rich, and the government. There are not more fat people in this country. Everybody has the body of Paris Hilton and the legs of our post modern fashion models. Credits are still in effect, and those who work are fed a daily ration, those who are homeless are left to die. Social services and health care are eliminated. A third world war breaks out for the right to obtain natural resources, and a Global Nuclear Apocalypse happens.
The way I envision life after peak oil, is a slow change in our social structure, but eventually the will of our people will begin to fade as problems like crime, energy supplies, transportation, and tremendous pressure from the oil refineries and alternative energy. Our government will of course try their best to protect it's people from the griming effects of life after peak oil, but their power to make sure everyone is fed and cared for also fades. I pictured our government as a soldier without a sword, trying to save his people as well as trying to save himself. When I mentioned a Global Nuclear Apocalypse, this was my prediction as to the last scenario of what life would be like after the peak oil. Due to all the drama and unstable countries, they will all strive for each other's resources in order to bring balance to their crumbling government. In order to do that there will be a nuclear war since the most destructive thing a country can do is send a missile that has the potential affect areas as large as New York City. Then when the opposing country is annihilated we go in and steal their resources, and hopefully benefit from our plunder.
Ecotopia Book Analysis.
Ecotopia describes a world of simplicity. The people in this book live through communal effort, mutual lifestyles and the use of healthy natural materials such as wood to build homes, and iron to make tools. Unlike our society where there are sometimes black puffs of muck and hazardous chemicals roaming freely in the air we breathe, Ecotopia introduces a more green environment where gardens and trees are abundant. Their total reliance on oil and complex machine parts have been abandoned and as a result, Ecotopians travel from place to place by bicycle or walking. In Ecotopia, its people are not granted permission to own an automobile, instead the only vehicles that exists in Ecotopia are trucks that help import and export resources. By eliminating their reliance on massive "fossil fuel burning" transportation automobiles and services by not having everyone driving, they do not face risks of environmental destruction from global warming, risk of cancer from car exhausts, etc. By having a possession of a bicycle these people have the ability to conserve physical energy, and be able to travel to wherever they are capable of traveling to. To further produce a more stabilized energy source, Ecotopians organized a physical work force that works on an average 2 and a half hours a day, instead of using thirsty machines that require to burn fossil fuels in order to operate. Uranium, Titanium, or the complex use of machinery does not exist in Ecotopia. Instead the homes and stores in this book are made of wood which can be gathered by careful selective cutting.
Analysis:
Seems to me that the author believes that if people create a more simple environment with a simple lifestyle by eliminating the "extra parts" in our current society today would help improve life after the age of Oil. But when I read the parts about how people are going to cooperate with one another, and help survive as a "community" and how we can live helping the environment instead of damaging it, I felt as if everything was just too perfect. Not everyone are obedient people who wants to live mutally with one another. There are people who wants to be superior, there are people who eats more than others, there are people who are jealous of another man's hot wife or their offspring's success. All these different emotions and personalities would rip a hole in a community that believes that everyone's "together". There will be people who don't believe in working to get somewhere, instead they rob or steal or form a gang of looters that rely on plundering other's success to survive. People are bound to disagree, and dispute over things they dont agree upon.
Analysis:
Seems to me that the author believes that if people create a more simple environment with a simple lifestyle by eliminating the "extra parts" in our current society today would help improve life after the age of Oil. But when I read the parts about how people are going to cooperate with one another, and help survive as a "community" and how we can live helping the environment instead of damaging it, I felt as if everything was just too perfect. Not everyone are obedient people who wants to live mutally with one another. There are people who wants to be superior, there are people who eats more than others, there are people who are jealous of another man's hot wife or their offspring's success. All these different emotions and personalities would rip a hole in a community that believes that everyone's "together". There will be people who don't believe in working to get somewhere, instead they rob or steal or form a gang of looters that rely on plundering other's success to survive. People are bound to disagree, and dispute over things they dont agree upon.
Thursday, May 04, 2006
Oil & Liquids Capacity Increases Up to the Year 2010
An argument from the author of "Steady As She Goes" article in the Economist magazine, stated that our oil peak prediction was not close enough for us to panick but still should be
taken seriously. The facts to his arguement referred to analytical reports from Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). He stated that, "Though noting rising costs, the firm concludes that the worl's oil production capacity could increase by as much as 15m barrels per day (bpd) between 2005-2010."
Evidence linked to this arguement came from a press release from CERA saying, "CERA indicates that worldwide capacity could rise by as much as 16 mbd between 2004 and 2010." (1st paragraph http://www.cera.com/news/details/1,2318,7453,00.html). CERA states that oil production capacity will surprisingly continue to shoot up in the "decades to come", and that supplies will still exceed demands by a rough 6-7.5 million barrels per day between those years. (support quote below)
"As a result, supply could exceed demand by as much as 6 to 7.5 million barrels per day (mbd) later in the decade, a marked contrast to the razor-sharp balance between strong demand growth and tight supply that is currently reflected in high oil prices hovering around $60 a barrel." (2nd paragraph in press release)
CERA seems to be optimistic about new discoveries and the further push in oil production peak due to careful analysis of a field to field, head to toe analysis of oil projects from around the world and confidence. They believe that new production capacities will be shown in the future due to developing projects that started years ago. With this new movement in developement, they hope that this will extend our production as well as improving the balance of supply and demand.
The author did not mention the report on the concerns of CERA about the events that are going to be placed after 2005-2010. CERA stated that they were not sure about future developements of big projects afterthe oil boom years because of the doubt that deep water and Russian deposits can still continue to increase oil production capacity after year 2010. (support quote below)
"The CERA analysis indicates the pace of new major projects coming onstream worldwide will be sustained to 2010, with fewer giant projects going forward after that. “We have some concerns as to whether the deepwater and Russian “miracles” can continue to shore up non-OPEC liquids capacity expansion past 2010, when non-OPEC capacity growth will start to slow significantly,” say Jackson and Esser." (8th paragraph)
Other then that, the author's point on peak not being as near as we anticipated relates to the perspectives of CERA. CERA also belives that peak would not be as soon as we figured it would be, and they envision more of a plateau instead of a sharp fall in life after global oil peak. (support quote below).
"The CERA analysis rejects the current fear that a near-term “peak” in world oil production and a coming exhaustion of supply are near. The report indicates that the “inflexion” point will come in the third or fourth decade of this century. Moreover, rather than a “peak,” it will be an “undulating plateau” that will continue for several decades." (10th paragraph)
taken seriously. The facts to his arguement referred to analytical reports from Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). He stated that, "Though noting rising costs, the firm concludes that the worl's oil production capacity could increase by as much as 15m barrels per day (bpd) between 2005-2010."
Evidence linked to this arguement came from a press release from CERA saying, "CERA indicates that worldwide capacity could rise by as much as 16 mbd between 2004 and 2010." (1st paragraph http://www.cera.com/news/details/1,2318,7453,00.html). CERA states that oil production capacity will surprisingly continue to shoot up in the "decades to come", and that supplies will still exceed demands by a rough 6-7.5 million barrels per day between those years. (support quote below)
"As a result, supply could exceed demand by as much as 6 to 7.5 million barrels per day (mbd) later in the decade, a marked contrast to the razor-sharp balance between strong demand growth and tight supply that is currently reflected in high oil prices hovering around $60 a barrel." (2nd paragraph in press release)
CERA seems to be optimistic about new discoveries and the further push in oil production peak due to careful analysis of a field to field, head to toe analysis of oil projects from around the world and confidence. They believe that new production capacities will be shown in the future due to developing projects that started years ago. With this new movement in developement, they hope that this will extend our production as well as improving the balance of supply and demand.
The author did not mention the report on the concerns of CERA about the events that are going to be placed after 2005-2010. CERA stated that they were not sure about future developements of big projects afterthe oil boom years because of the doubt that deep water and Russian deposits can still continue to increase oil production capacity after year 2010. (support quote below)
"The CERA analysis indicates the pace of new major projects coming onstream worldwide will be sustained to 2010, with fewer giant projects going forward after that. “We have some concerns as to whether the deepwater and Russian “miracles” can continue to shore up non-OPEC liquids capacity expansion past 2010, when non-OPEC capacity growth will start to slow significantly,” say Jackson and Esser." (8th paragraph)
Other then that, the author's point on peak not being as near as we anticipated relates to the perspectives of CERA. CERA also belives that peak would not be as soon as we figured it would be, and they envision more of a plateau instead of a sharp fall in life after global oil peak. (support quote below).
"The CERA analysis rejects the current fear that a near-term “peak” in world oil production and a coming exhaustion of supply are near. The report indicates that the “inflexion” point will come in the third or fourth decade of this century. Moreover, rather than a “peak,” it will be an “undulating plateau” that will continue for several decades." (10th paragraph)
Tuesday, May 02, 2006
Why the world is not running out of oil.
I've read the article on Economist.Com that supported the idea that peak would soon happen, but it wouldn't be a big deal because of our growing technology, enhanced methods of drilling oil, and future investments in alternative energy that can help keep the world running. They bring up the perspectives of other experts, that oil is finally running dry, and how the imminent oil peak "will eventually lead to an economic disaster." They ask, Is the world starting to run out of oil? And would hitting a global peak of production necessarily spell economic ruin?
They say that the world isn't running out of oil and that there is a lot more oil to be discovered in different parts in the world. Optimists believe that technological advances in oil extraction and alternative energy would prolong our production peak by decades. Global oil industries are changing from an exploration business into a technology manufacturing business. This meant that these oil companies are racing to manufacture fuels that blend to make petrol & diesel, which in return can extend the life of the world's remaining oil reserves. As a domino effect, the investment in manufacturing fuels blended to make petrol and diesel might open doors to firms that engage in alternative energy sources and "it may even result in a breakthrough that replaces oil altogether. Peak-oil advocates remain unpleased, because they debate that Western oil companies are struggling to replace produced oil. The world consumes two to three barrels in ratio to every one barrel found. The articles agree that firms are having a hard time replacing reserves but they debated that it still didn't mean the world was running out of oil. Its only that these companies did not have access to other oil reserves the world such as the vast oil deposits in Russia.
The optimists mentioned about tar sands and shale oil and if they were taken into account, the production peak will appear much further into the future. But unfortunately the effort and costs to extract the petroleum from these alternate resources are increasingly greater than extracting conventional oil. There is mention of beneficial technological break troughs such as the muti-lateral drilling which helped shift the 1980 predictons of decline in Britain's North Sea. This area is now just peaking according to the article. Technology such as the "4-D seismic analysis, steam injection process and electromagnetic direct detection of hydrocarbons " are lifting the recovery rate of oil production. Where as the oil industry only recovers about 1/3 of oil that exists in their oil reserves. So technological advancements can help increase the 1/3 recovery rate. The article also mentioned, "fancier technologies, oil business is drilling in deeper waters, more difficult terrain, and even in the arctic (which as global warming melts the polar ice cap) will perversely become the next great prize in oil." Many environmentalists would counter- attack to this claim by bringing up the result of hotter summers due to global warming from the continued burning of fossil fuels which would then increase demands for oil, and our next great prize would just be a small bite in our increasing oil appetite. Solutions from this article seems to be aiming for a more gentle declined in oil use, through development in drilling technology that can process the heavier oils, which can then recover our production rate. Plans for a more gentle decline encouraged Saudi Arabia to replace lost output of production with new developed fields. As for improvements, Saudi Arabia, invited Chevron to apply the steam injection technique to recover heavy oil in its reserves. This new hope can recover useful oil from 6% to 40%, thus helping the push our future peak further down in the time line. Here is an article that explains the steam injection process. (http://www.geoconvention.org/2006abstracts/189S0131.pdf)
Experts related this oil problem to, "the surprising outcome of another great motorcar race." As in 1894 Paris organized the first endurance race with vehicles without horses where different cars used different fuels. The best fuel came to be Petroleum, and now experts are saying, its time for another race to see what new fuel will take place. A step in competing in the next "motorcar race" was the Audi prototype R-10 which used diesel oil not made normally. The car used blended original diesel with a new form of diesel made from natural gas. Results in using this new type of blended energy source came out to be extremely clean and extremely powerful.This type of new diesel was named GTL, short for "gas to liquids." Countries like Nigeria is also pursuing the use of GTL. In terms of energy the north gas field in Qatar is "perhaps two times the size of Ghawar. (Ghawar is name of the largest oil field in Saudi Arabia)http://english.mofa.gov.qa/details.cfm?id=53 (Link to a little information on North gas field in Qatar) Because there is much more natural gas than fossil fuels in this world, it would be benefit us greatly and lightly increase the globes oil supplies.
Optimists believed that oil prices will eventually influence investments and pressure people into investing in new alternative energy. Leaving their hopes on oil, and prayers for new alternatives. Oil company Chevron commented, "price is our friend here, because it has encouraged investment in new hydrocarbons and also the alternatives."What the article presents as a solution to our future oil problem, is a technological advancement in improving oil production recovery and the plentiful alternative energy sources. These technological advancements are very beneficial in pushing our peak oil further into the future but we still have to deal with it in the long run. It is true that oil is being extracted at an increasingly rate but others think methods in drilling heavier oils, the oil prices pressuring investments in alternative energy, and blending natural gas with conventional oil would lighten our fall after the oil peak and give birth to a new energy production. Optimists thinks that oil companies are transforming from a "risky exploration business into a technology-intensive manufacturing business. Proof to this are the efforts of a newly created diesel fuel called GTL which is created by blending diesel created by natural gas with conventional diesel. The question that still remains is how long will this transformation take? Will our industry change its oil addiction in time before demands exceeds supplies? And how effective or damaging are these alternative methods and resources?
Analysis:
After reading both articles supporting different sides I feel as if this author is putting his trust in technology and the enhancements they provide in oil production. He believes that the large amounts of natural gas, and many other resources in the world that can be converted into energy and guarantee survival of civilization. He feels that firms who are struggling to replace reserves didn't mean that the globe's oil is running out but the fact that the remaining oil deposits are in parts of the world that is not accessible like the deposits in Russia, and the "locking out of Western Oil companies in Saudi Arabia." His tone of voice in this article is leaning more into telling readers not to panic about this oil issue because it's years to come, and to put their trust in our engagement in alternative energy and development in advancing energy extracting technology. What I think is that this guy isn't looking too much on how fossil fuels destroy our O-Zone layer which then increases the chance of cancer from UV rays, how it pollutes our air, creates global warming which melts our polar ice caps which then will heighten our tides and cause massive floods all around the world. Plus investing in technological advancements in extracting oil is a waste of money and time. With all the money invested in drilling technology, we can use it in alternative research and educating the public on how to live without oil. Investing in drilling upgrades will only deepen our dependence on oil. The author does mention that investing in upgrades in technology will help prolong the peak in production and as prices go up it can open doors to alternative energy investors. We might be able to predict when our oil peak might hit but can we predict if we can transform our oil dependent industry in time before the peak happens? So slow changes aren't going to be effective. We need to act immediately, because every year oil demands rise by the billions and no matter how much new reserves and advancements we make in drilling the oil, it may not even quench the thirst of half our exponentially growing population in the future. The author spends a lot of his time telling readers how there's so much natural gas in the world, and how hope is still there because of GTL fuels and new drilling techniques. But he doesn't give us the detail of the costs and effects of those new methods and the help or damage to the environment and the negative or positive side effects that humans will get from these methods due to atmosphere damage and pollution.
How I feel on the issue:
I feel that new terms of energy would help ensure the future of our survival as a race, but I feel as if in the end the ever growing human population would take its toll. For instance lets say every thing's good now at the year 2006, and population rises exponentially. Our new resources are still abundant. Lets wait now. Its been 800 years and now its the year 2806, our population is at about a trillion+. Technology has allowed humans to live up to 140, and theres cure to cancer and aids. We rarely have diseases. Our population continue to grow. What happens then? We will soon reach a limit to where the planet cannot support the people living in it. Alternative resources are the same as fossil fuels, they're all finite. As creatures living in this planet we cannot disrupt the natural balance.
They say that the world isn't running out of oil and that there is a lot more oil to be discovered in different parts in the world. Optimists believe that technological advances in oil extraction and alternative energy would prolong our production peak by decades. Global oil industries are changing from an exploration business into a technology manufacturing business. This meant that these oil companies are racing to manufacture fuels that blend to make petrol & diesel, which in return can extend the life of the world's remaining oil reserves. As a domino effect, the investment in manufacturing fuels blended to make petrol and diesel might open doors to firms that engage in alternative energy sources and "it may even result in a breakthrough that replaces oil altogether. Peak-oil advocates remain unpleased, because they debate that Western oil companies are struggling to replace produced oil. The world consumes two to three barrels in ratio to every one barrel found. The articles agree that firms are having a hard time replacing reserves but they debated that it still didn't mean the world was running out of oil. Its only that these companies did not have access to other oil reserves the world such as the vast oil deposits in Russia.
The optimists mentioned about tar sands and shale oil and if they were taken into account, the production peak will appear much further into the future. But unfortunately the effort and costs to extract the petroleum from these alternate resources are increasingly greater than extracting conventional oil. There is mention of beneficial technological break troughs such as the muti-lateral drilling which helped shift the 1980 predictons of decline in Britain's North Sea. This area is now just peaking according to the article. Technology such as the "4-D seismic analysis, steam injection process and electromagnetic direct detection of hydrocarbons " are lifting the recovery rate of oil production. Where as the oil industry only recovers about 1/3 of oil that exists in their oil reserves. So technological advancements can help increase the 1/3 recovery rate. The article also mentioned, "fancier technologies, oil business is drilling in deeper waters, more difficult terrain, and even in the arctic (which as global warming melts the polar ice cap) will perversely become the next great prize in oil." Many environmentalists would counter- attack to this claim by bringing up the result of hotter summers due to global warming from the continued burning of fossil fuels which would then increase demands for oil, and our next great prize would just be a small bite in our increasing oil appetite. Solutions from this article seems to be aiming for a more gentle declined in oil use, through development in drilling technology that can process the heavier oils, which can then recover our production rate. Plans for a more gentle decline encouraged Saudi Arabia to replace lost output of production with new developed fields. As for improvements, Saudi Arabia, invited Chevron to apply the steam injection technique to recover heavy oil in its reserves. This new hope can recover useful oil from 6% to 40%, thus helping the push our future peak further down in the time line. Here is an article that explains the steam injection process. (http://www.geoconvention.org/2006abstracts/189S0131.pdf)
Experts related this oil problem to, "the surprising outcome of another great motorcar race." As in 1894 Paris organized the first endurance race with vehicles without horses where different cars used different fuels. The best fuel came to be Petroleum, and now experts are saying, its time for another race to see what new fuel will take place. A step in competing in the next "motorcar race" was the Audi prototype R-10 which used diesel oil not made normally. The car used blended original diesel with a new form of diesel made from natural gas. Results in using this new type of blended energy source came out to be extremely clean and extremely powerful.This type of new diesel was named GTL, short for "gas to liquids." Countries like Nigeria is also pursuing the use of GTL. In terms of energy the north gas field in Qatar is "perhaps two times the size of Ghawar. (Ghawar is name of the largest oil field in Saudi Arabia)http://english.mofa.gov.qa/details.cfm?id=53 (Link to a little information on North gas field in Qatar) Because there is much more natural gas than fossil fuels in this world, it would be benefit us greatly and lightly increase the globes oil supplies.
Optimists believed that oil prices will eventually influence investments and pressure people into investing in new alternative energy. Leaving their hopes on oil, and prayers for new alternatives. Oil company Chevron commented, "price is our friend here, because it has encouraged investment in new hydrocarbons and also the alternatives."What the article presents as a solution to our future oil problem, is a technological advancement in improving oil production recovery and the plentiful alternative energy sources. These technological advancements are very beneficial in pushing our peak oil further into the future but we still have to deal with it in the long run. It is true that oil is being extracted at an increasingly rate but others think methods in drilling heavier oils, the oil prices pressuring investments in alternative energy, and blending natural gas with conventional oil would lighten our fall after the oil peak and give birth to a new energy production. Optimists thinks that oil companies are transforming from a "risky exploration business into a technology-intensive manufacturing business. Proof to this are the efforts of a newly created diesel fuel called GTL which is created by blending diesel created by natural gas with conventional diesel. The question that still remains is how long will this transformation take? Will our industry change its oil addiction in time before demands exceeds supplies? And how effective or damaging are these alternative methods and resources?
Analysis:
After reading both articles supporting different sides I feel as if this author is putting his trust in technology and the enhancements they provide in oil production. He believes that the large amounts of natural gas, and many other resources in the world that can be converted into energy and guarantee survival of civilization. He feels that firms who are struggling to replace reserves didn't mean that the globe's oil is running out but the fact that the remaining oil deposits are in parts of the world that is not accessible like the deposits in Russia, and the "locking out of Western Oil companies in Saudi Arabia." His tone of voice in this article is leaning more into telling readers not to panic about this oil issue because it's years to come, and to put their trust in our engagement in alternative energy and development in advancing energy extracting technology. What I think is that this guy isn't looking too much on how fossil fuels destroy our O-Zone layer which then increases the chance of cancer from UV rays, how it pollutes our air, creates global warming which melts our polar ice caps which then will heighten our tides and cause massive floods all around the world. Plus investing in technological advancements in extracting oil is a waste of money and time. With all the money invested in drilling technology, we can use it in alternative research and educating the public on how to live without oil. Investing in drilling upgrades will only deepen our dependence on oil. The author does mention that investing in upgrades in technology will help prolong the peak in production and as prices go up it can open doors to alternative energy investors. We might be able to predict when our oil peak might hit but can we predict if we can transform our oil dependent industry in time before the peak happens? So slow changes aren't going to be effective. We need to act immediately, because every year oil demands rise by the billions and no matter how much new reserves and advancements we make in drilling the oil, it may not even quench the thirst of half our exponentially growing population in the future. The author spends a lot of his time telling readers how there's so much natural gas in the world, and how hope is still there because of GTL fuels and new drilling techniques. But he doesn't give us the detail of the costs and effects of those new methods and the help or damage to the environment and the negative or positive side effects that humans will get from these methods due to atmosphere damage and pollution.
How I feel on the issue:
I feel that new terms of energy would help ensure the future of our survival as a race, but I feel as if in the end the ever growing human population would take its toll. For instance lets say every thing's good now at the year 2006, and population rises exponentially. Our new resources are still abundant. Lets wait now. Its been 800 years and now its the year 2806, our population is at about a trillion+. Technology has allowed humans to live up to 140, and theres cure to cancer and aids. We rarely have diseases. Our population continue to grow. What happens then? We will soon reach a limit to where the planet cannot support the people living in it. Alternative resources are the same as fossil fuels, they're all finite. As creatures living in this planet we cannot disrupt the natural balance.
